CHARLOTTE, N.C. " It's become an NBA tradition to award the top three draft picks by weighted lottery, to discourage any perception that a team would intentionally lose to improve its draft position.
There's an assumption in that process that a top-three pick is so valuable, it's fool-proof. That assumption is a fallacy, as an Observer study of the past 10 drafts illustrates.
For every can't-miss LeBron James, there was a Kwame Brown selected at the top of a draft. Smart people still do dumb things; Detroit Pistons architect Joe Dumars once chose Darko Milicic No.2 overall, when future All-Stars Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade were available.
The NBA will run its annual draft lottery Tuesday night, with the Charlotte Bobcats holding less than a 4 percent chance of a top-three pick. The odds overwhelmingly suggest they'll draft eighth. Charlotte Observer NBA writer Rick Bonnell examines how reliable a tool a top-three pick has been the past 10 drafts:
2007
Top three picks: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford. Analysis: Probably the right calls, since it wasn't Oden's fault he needed knee surgery. No.6 pick Yi Jianlian shows promise, but no more than Horford or Durant.
2006
Top three picks: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison. Analysis: Aldridge played well for Portland this season, but Bargnani isn't a starter in Toronto and Morrison is still firming up a spot in Charlotte's rotation. The Bobcats screwed up by not giving greater consideration to Brandon Roy (already an All-Star) and Rudy Gay.
2005
Top three picks: Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams. Analysis: How the Atlanta Hawks (choosing No.2) passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul, with a burning need at point guard, is one of the great head-scratchers. (It helps explain why Billy Knight no longer is general manager there.) All Paul did, in his third season, is finish second in most valuable player balloting. 2004
Top three picks: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon. Analysis: Gordon has been a decent combo guard, but he wouldn't be the third pick in a re-drawn draft. Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala and Al Jefferson all look like brighter prospects.
2003
Top three picks: LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony. Analysis: Milicic is on his third team and looks like a bust. Bosh, Wade, Chris Kaman and Josh Howard are far better players.
2002
Top three picks: Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy.
Analysis: That motorcycle accident aborted Williams' career, but it's striking, six years later, that Amare Stoudemire was drafted six spots behind Dunleavy.
2001
Top three picks: Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol. Analysis: Michael Jordan, now overseeing the Bobcats' basketball operations, messed up with Washington by using No.1 on Brown.
Beyond Chandler and Gasol, he could have drafted Jason Richardson (No.5), Joe Johnson (No.10) or Richard Jefferson (No.13).
2000
Top three picks: Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles. Analysis: This was a generally weak draft, but Hedo Turkoglu lasted to the 16th pick and Jamaal Magloire was 19th.
1999
Top three picks: Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis. Analysis: Francis had three All-Star seasons, but was he any more valuable than Richard Hamilton, chosen seventh overall?
1998
Top three picks: Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef LaFrentz. Analysis: Oooops! Not one of the top three was as good as No.9 Dirk Nowitzki (a former MVP) or No.10 Paul Pierce. And the fourth and fifth picks " Antawn Jamison and Vince Carter " also have greater bodies of work.
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Top three picks in NBA draft not foolproof
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