Climate change.

Melting ice caps. Rising ocean levels.

Scientists have only begun to decode the complexity of the issue.

While the impact on polar bear populations is obviously far removed from central Pennsylvania, we are not exempt from the impact of climate change.

“The effects of climate change are not just a concern of scientists, but are now a focus of policymakers and the general public,” stated Dr. Mary Ann Furedi, an ecologist of the Pennsylvania Natural Heritage Program(PNHP). “We are aware that the climate is changing around us and of the need to react to these changes.”

One of the obvious climate changes in our region are milder winters. People who are familiar with the 1950s and ’60s well remember snows so deep that local schools were off for a week, and even then, back-country roads were impassible. Though we occasionally get blizzards, they don’t compare with those winters.

We have dealt with climate change in stride because it is subtle. However, this is about to change. “The PNHP is currently working on a project to identify species in Pennsylvania that are most likely to be impacted by climate change,” Dr. Furedi said.

The new tool is simply called the Climate Change Vulnerability Index. It addresses specific criteria including biology, habitat needs and the ability of species to adapt to not only climate change, but rainfall and snowfall predictions in the Keystone State.

Dr. Keith Bildstein, Director of Conservation and Science at Hawk Mountain Sanctuary, admits it will take multiple decades for a major change in migration patterns to occur.

“We expect to see a reduction in migration itself,” he said. “We have already started to see the sharp-shinned hawk remaining in Pennsylvania more than it did years ago, and we will continue to see a change in migration habitats.”

He continued, “It’s because of food that birds migrate rather than for warmer temperatures. Barn owl populations are likely to increase with less snow cover because they will be able to find more rodents in open fields.”

However, as food increases due to warmer temperatures with longer growing seasons, it presents another challenge. As more migrating species choose not to head south for the winter, they will be competing with year-round residents for the same food.

Gregory Czarnecki, Executive Director of the Wild Resource Conservation Program, and Director of the Natural Heritage Program within the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, admits “There are already indications that climate change is beginning to affect some species in Pennsylvania.”

He gives these statistics:

According to the USDA, our growing season has increase by ten to 14 days in northern parts of the U.S. over the past 19 years.

Peak nectar flow for honeybees is occurring a month earlier compared with 15 years ago.

Periodic cicadas, better known as the 17-year locust, are emerging four years early, most likely because of warmer temperatures on the trees they feed on.

There also tends to be a shift for some of Pennsylvania bird species to be migrating further north to find cooler temperatures. “We’re starting to see some northward shifts in animal and plant populations. The red-breasted merganser, for example, a duck commonly seen migrating through the Commonwealth, is now found more than 300 miles farther north during the winter that it was 40 years ago,” Czarnecki said.

As the climate changes, so does the makeup of our forests. “The northern hardwood forests that dominates much of Pennsylvania will probably be replaced by oak and hickories,” he predicted.

“The hemlocks will probably decline significantly,” he said due to the pest called the woolly adelgid. “The hemlocks in the northern part of the state shade and cool many of our cold water streams, so as they’re lost, we may lose species that rely on those cold water temperatures, such as the brook trout, our only native trout,” he said.

The climate — from alternating periods of flooding rains to severe droughts — will affect wetlands. “It will especially affect vernal pools, which serve as nurseries for many of our salamanders and frogs,” he added.

Humans can adapt to climate change. However, the jury is still out how Pennsylvania’s flora and fauna will react to the predicted change.

-- Connie Mertz is a hunter and nature enthusiast from Danville. Contact her at: owcam@verizon.net.