U.S. Rep. Chris Carney has twice stood before 10th Congressional voters, and each time he has had the wind at his back.
Carney won the office, thanks to voter disgust over the personal peccadilloes of his predecessor — the honorable Don Sherwood who bribed his girlfriend to keep quiet after he allegedly choked her during an argument.
Carney worked diligently to make inroads and establish support in even the most conservative corners of the district. Still, he rode to re-election in 2008 with the Barack Obama wave.
If Carney cruised in Obama’s wake in 2008, he may be swamped in 2010.
With Obama’s health care reform plans floundering and the economy stabilized at a level of continuous pain, Republicans may view Carney as low-hanging fruit, ripe for the picking.
Four Republicans have stepped forward as potential opponents for Carney in the fall. At least one other candidate, Snyder County Republican state committee member Mark Harris, is considering a run too.
There are factors at play that have little bearing on the merit of the candidates, though they could impact election results.
The scrum of primary candidates could give Carney an edge if Republicans have to spend money in the spring that could have been used against Carney in the fall. Also, divisions that form in a contested primary may hurt party solidarity when it is needed in the general election.
In that light, party officials are already looking at former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino as the front-runner, for no other apparent reason than he appears to have the best ability to raise funds. Considering Carney was sitting on a war chest of almost $500,000 at the end of 2009, the candidate’s fund-raising capabilities may be a practical concern.
It also distorts the point.
Washington obsesses over power. The rest of us do not. Americans want people in government to come up with real solutions to their real problems. They do not particularly care which party gets credit for success and they do not care to need to pinpoint partisan blame for our current struggles. Obama won the election because he promised an alternative. Voters are upset because they do not believe Obama has delivered.
It is not about party in power, but performance in office. The real risk right now for Carney and others in Congress is that they will be confronted with a record of failed incumbency.
