Woolly worms at Saturday’s festival in Lewisburg predicted temperatures cold enough for outdoor ice skating by late December, followed by two major snowstorms, said a festival judge who analyzed the caterpillars. Just how accurate are the woolly worms, especially when compared with Punxsutawney Phil? The following story was published Jan. 30, 2011, in The Daily Item.
Every Feb. 2 for more than 100 years, German descendants have gathered at a place called Gobbler’s Knob to watch if a rodent sees its shadow.
Tradition holds that if the sun is shining on that day — Candlemas Day, in the old country — there will be six more weeks of winter.
But what’s the track record of Phil, the groundhog meteorologist of Punxsutawney?
And how’s his record hold up to the tradition of the woolly worm, a centuries-old winter forecasting method celebrated in Lewisburg in October?
And what about the people who went to school to learn how to predict the weather? What do they say?
Middlebury College economics professor Paul Sommers appears to have done the most extensive research on the topic of Phil’s forecasting prowess.
Though Sommers admits he hasn’t dabbled in the subject in some time, his paper, “Punxsutawney’s Phenominal Phorecaster” is often cited as an authority.
“I don’t want to say I’ve had my fill of Phil, but I haven’t done any work on the subject in a few years,” he said. “Maybe my work will stand the test of time, I don’t know.”
By studying Phil’s predictions between 1950 and 1999, and comparing them with weather records using a complicated mathematical formula, he and his co-authors concluded the furry forecaster was correct about 70 percent of the time.
“And much more accurate when he did see his shadow than when he did not,” the paper reads.
That’s fine for the folks in western Pennsylvania, but what about in these parts?
For almost a decade and a half, folks in Lewisburg have been corralling caterpillars to examine their fur to get a hint at what the winter will be like.
As the story goes, the length and severity of the winter is predicated on the ratio of brown fur to black fur on the woolly worm in early October. The more black there is, the colder it will be, said Kim Ritter, one of the organizers of the annual Woolly Worm Festival in Hufnagle Park.
This past year, the worms predicted periods of very cold weather, but otherwise warmer with some sleet and rain, and some slushy snow. Some high winds. Children can expect about five “snow” days from school.
Ritter said her first year involved with the festival in 2006, the worms were dead-on.
“The prediction was supposed to be that we’d start off as a warm winter, then cold in the middle, and at least three snow days,” she recalled. “Then it was supposed to warm up and have spring flowers like we’re supposed to. And they were exactly right.”
It is said C.H. Curran, former curator of insects at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, tested the woolly worms’ accuracy in the 1950s. He allegedly found an 80 percent accuracy rate.
Other researchers have not been able to replicate his results, though.
The National Weather Service in State College relies on history and computer models to predict the weather.
Meteorologist Paul Head said the agency’s 90-day long-range forecast puts odds of a nasty winter at 50-50.
That’s because things are supposed to be very cold and dry to our north and west, but warm and wet to our south and east.
“We’re right on the cusp,” he said. “We’re pretty much on the break-even point.”
In truth, the winter so far has borne out that assessment. The winter storm last week socked places to the east with more than a foot of snow, but the Valley saw barely a few inches.
In the short-term, Head warned of more snow this week.
In fact, another winter storm, similar to what the Valley saw last week, is predicted to hit around Groundhog’s Day.
“If Phil sees his shadow while it’s snowing, I’ll know it’s a lot of hooey,” Head said. “It’s just the TV lights.”
News
Woolly worms outsmart Phil
- News
-
-
Today's Top Videos
-
House panel moves to curb military sexual assaults
WASHINGTON — Members of a House panel angry over sexual abuse problems in the military are set to vote on a bill that would strip commanding officers of their authority to unilaterally change or dismiss court-martial convictions — a change that lawmakers believe will lead to a cultural shift that encourages more victims to step forward.
-
Public info meeting on Rail Trail extension takes place tomorrow
LEWISBURG -- Rail Trail fans, listen up: An informational meeting on the proposed extension of the Buffalo Valley Rail Trail into Lewisburg borough takes place 7 p.m. tomorrow at the William Cameron Engine Co's. training facility at North Fifth Street and Buffalo Road.
-
Gas line break forces one-hour evacuation in Milton
MILTON — Residents in Milton were forced out of their homes for over an hour this morning after a contractor working on Carr Avenue hit a gas line, according to UGI.
-
Lewisburg schools lockdown lifted within 20 minutes this morning
LEWISBURG - Schools in the Lewisburg Area School District were locked down briefly this morning due to "a potential threat," according to the district's alert system.
-
Long-time Beavertown mayor ousted by 14 votes
Political newcomer Lee Hollenbach Jr. defeated incumbent Mayor Cloyd “Bill” Wagner in Tuesday night’s Republican primary.
-
Dunkleberger wins Northumberland Co. prothonotary race
Justin Dunkelberger defeated Jamie Saleski 2,744-2,124 in a hotly contested Republican primary election Tuesday night for Northumberland County prothonotary and clerk of courts.
-
Persing elected to another term as Sunbury Mayor
Incumbent Mayor David Persing, who fought off repeated allegations in recent months by challenger Julie Brosius, won the Republican nomination by a landslide in Tuesday’s primary election.
-
10 Things to Know for Today
Your daily look at late-breaking news, upcoming events and the stories that will be talked about today:
-
FBI: Man fatally shot in Boston bombing probe
ORLANDO, Fla. — A man being questioned in the Boston Marathon bombing case was shot to death at his home by an FBI agent today after turning violent, officials said.
-
Fire destroys $60G cottage in Union County
WINFIELD — A fire swept through a Winfield home while its occupants were at work Tuesday.
-
2013 Primary Election - Top Races
Unofficial primary election returns
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY
Prothonotary/Clerk of Courts
Republican
Justin R. Dunkelberger 2,744
Jamie Saleski 2,124100 percent reporting
Magisterial District Judge
08-3-02, Milton
Republican
Larry Redington 496
Mike Diehl 684
Lisa A. Riley 328
Seth M. Cotner 132
Democrat
Larry Regington 182
Seth M. Cotner 90
Mike Diehl 221Lisa A. Riley 218
100 percent reporting
Sunbury Mayor
Republican
Julie Brosius 200
David L. Persing 378100 percent reporting
Sunbury Treasurer
Republican
Stanley E. Geiswhite 176
Kevin E. Troup 388
100 percent reportingUNION COUNTY
County Coroner
Republican
Tod M. Steese 542
Dominick T. Adamo 1,04963 percent reporting
Gregg Township
Alcohol Sales: Do you favor the granting of liquor license for the sale of liquor in the Township of Gregg?
Yes 82
No 72
100 percent reporting -
Midd-West adopts preliminary budget
Faced with a firm deadline in which to adopt a preliminary budget for 2013-14, the Midd-West school board reversed its vote late Monday night and approved the $32.85 million plan.
-
Police file attempted homicide charge in baseball bat attack
FREEBURG - A Freeburg man, who allegedly attacked two people less than a week after he was released on bail, is now facing attempted homicide charges, according to police.
-
10 Things to Know for Today
Your daily look at late-breaking news, upcoming events and the stories that will be talked about today:
-
Driver, boy, 6, hurt in Route 15 crash
LEWISBURG — A 61-year-old Milton woman and a 6-year-old boy were hurt Monday night when their vehicle hit a guide rail and a concrete barrier before overturning on Route 15, state police at Milton said.
-
Sunbury hospital's operating margin among worst in state
SUNBURY — Sunbury Community Hospital’s 2012 operating margin was among the worst in the state, according to a new report examining the fiscal health of the state’s hospitals.
-
Sunbury woman gets 9-23 months in cocaine sales
SUNBURY — A Sunbury woman will report to the Northumberland County Prison on June 3 for a nine- to 23-month stint for her part in a cocaine ring that police said saw her earning $900 a week from sales.
- More News Headlines
-
Today's Top Videos
